Sunday, August 16, 2009

The Iranian Nuclear Program and the Internal Iranian Political Crisis

"The hard-line elements in the regime, those now more fully in control than at any time since the early 1989's, have always opposed negotiations witht he international community and have always been the most virulent supporters of the Iranian nuclear program. There has always been reason to suspect that many of them desire an arsenal itlself, and not merely the theoretical capability to build one. With the voices of restraint silenced, it seems much less likely that those in control in Tehran will agree to negotiate the dismantling of that program, or even ways of limiting it."

Kenneth Pollack, "Persian Paradoxes: the Reflections on the Saban Center-CENTCOM Conference," July 14-15, 2009.

Kayhan, Iranian Conservative Newspaper, on U.S.-Iranian Engagement:"The Americans Are Begging Iran for Dialogue"; U.S. Strategic Needs in Pakistan, Af

In a July 27, 2009 editorial, the conservative Iranian daily Kayhan stated that the U.S. has only one strategy for dealing with Iran, namely striving for dialogue with it - particularly, Kayhan said, after U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recognized Iran as nuclear.

It should be noted that Tehran is depicting Clinton's July 22, 2009 statements in Thailand - that the U.S. would offer its allies in the region a "defense umbrella" against a nuclear Iran, and that the U.S. has a plan to prevent Iran from taking over the Middle East if it obtains nuclear weapons - as proof that the U.S. is coming to terms with a nuclear Iran. In its editorial, Kayhan explained that the U.S. interests in the region, particularly in Pakistan and Afghanistan, are more important for the U.S. than the threat of Iran going nuclear. Thus, it said, the Americans are sending a desperate message to the world, begging Iran for dialogue. Tehran understands that Washington is not overly concerned about the prospect of a nuclear Iran; moreover, it knows that enhanced sanctions against Iran or even an attack on the country are impossible, and that threats of the same are only an American maneuver to bring Iran to the negotiating table.

See: MEMRI Special Dispatch - No. 2467, July 31, 2009

The EMP threat

Avi Schnurr, July 2009

Since the first atmospheric nuclear tests fifty years ago, it has been known that a single nuclear weapon exploded above the Earth’s atmosphere produces an electromagnetic pulse (EMP), radiating down to the Earth in a massive electrical surge of over 10,000 volts per meter. An EMP weapon’s range is limited only by its altitude: it hits everywhere on a continent not blocked by the earth’s curvature, and strikes about ten times as fast as lighting,burning out computers, electronics, electrical networks and control systems.

EMP would destroy the country’s computers, bring the economy to a halt by disrupting its banking and financial databases and burn out telephones, cell phones, the internet, email, radio and television. It would destroy the electrical grid, stop cars and trucks on the country’s highways, disrupt the government, stop the nation’s water and waste management systems, drive oil refineries out of control and cripple the nation’s military. It would shatter the foundation of modern society.

The EMP Commission found that knowledge of this threat is particularly widespread in the world’s most dangerous nations, including Iran and North Korea. Iran, in particular, has been conducting what appear to be missile tests to simulate a nuclear EMP strike. According to Senate testimony, an Iranian military journal publicly discussed using EMP against the West.

"Once you confuse the enemy communication network,” the Iranian journal said,“ … you will, in effect, disrupt all the affairs of that country. If the world's industrial countries fail to devise effective ways to defend themselves against dangerous electronic assaults then they will disintegrate within a few years.”


Hezbollah sleeper cells in South, Central America ready for action

Ronen Bergman

Hezbollah’s cells in Venezuela are part of the organization’s apparatus dedicated to attacks overseas. It is also known as the “Special Operations Command.”

For years, this apparatus operated overseas under Imad Mugniyah’s command. Today, the apparatus is headed by the man who served as Mugniyah’s deputy, Talal Hamiyeh.

Based on in-depth research performed by Israeli and American intelligence arms, the cell that carried out the attacks in Argentina was one of dozens of sleeper cells deployed by Hizbullah and the al-Quds force of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards worldwide, including in the United States and Europe.

Some of these cells were deployed in South America, where large communities of Lebanese Shiites, some of whom support Hezbollah, can be found. Many of them live in towns that serve as focal points of the drug and arms trade.

In Venezuela, Hezbollah cells are mostly found in the centers of the oil industry, which brings in workers from the Middle East.